Update: Wine prices 2023

Are we nearing the point where prices have peaked?

"Did those wine prices seem lower this time?"

I was talking to a wine importer the other day, and asked how business was: “Not bad,” he said, “considering no one is buying wine.”

Which may be a sign that wine prices – and even premiumization? -- have reached a peak, and we’re about to head down.

I base this on more than one conversation with one importer (even though he’s really smart and doesn’t gild any wine lilies). There have been any number of signs this spring that waning demand may finally be doing what the law of supply and demand says it should do:

• Two recent studies, by the IWSR consultancy and the International Organisation of Vine and Wine trade group found that consumers are buying less alcohol and that overall consumption is down. Premiumization remains important in the U.S. and – though slowing – is still seen as a key to the U.S. market.

• The blog’s official wine numbers guru told me recent U.S. sales figures are “glum,” but still contain a lot of confusion from the pandemic. However, “it is clear that the second wine boom, circa 1995-2015, is over.”

• Older vintages – lots and lots – are showing up on store shelves. I mentioned this in the rose post last week, and just keep seeing more and more as I scour the Internet. In fact, I got an email from Wine.com saying that a 2020 rose – two vintages past – was back in stock. How much must there be still to sell?

• Treasury Wine Estates will cut costs (perhaps even layoffs) because it’s selling less wine, including and especially its 19 Crimes supermarket brand. How did wine get to the point that 19 Crimes and Snoop Dog – one of the great successes of the past couple of years – is in trouble?

In other words, people are buying and drinking less wine. One of the most interesting bits in the IWSR report noted that we’re drinking less to save money, and not necessarily to save our health from the evils of drink. Who would have thought that?

Having said that, this is far from an exact science, as my several goofs about pricing over the years demonstrate. There is no doubt that the supply chain and inflation issues that pounded wine during the pandemic were real and caused legitimate price hikes.

But I’m still getting samples of wines with silly suggested retail prices, like $13 for a French red blend with a marketing-driven name but where the grapes probably cost $2 or $3. And there have been reports that some consumer goods producers and retailers, seeing a chance to take price increases, are taking them just because.

So I could be completely wrong. But let’s hope not.